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Another Year, Another Super Bowl

Seems like just yesterday I was writing about the college football season starting. Since that time, we've had THREE "every 100 years" events happen: over $4 gallon gas, an economy that pretty much totally collapses and the election of an African American as President. Maybe it's time for a little levity.

Yet levity is not what the hotel business is all about these days. Word is out that hotel rooms are going begging at the Super Bowl. Visit St. Petersburg Clearwater said in a release there are still plenty of available rooms in Pinellas (County) at rates as low as $150 per night for water-view condo rentals and beach hoteliers are still scrambling to fill rooms. Even Pinellas County’s convention and visitors bureau is advertising special deals on its own Web site http://www.visitstpeteclearwater.com/superbowl/hot-superbowl-deals.

When the Super Bowl has trouble attracting high net worth customers when playing in a warm weather city on February, you know things are tough. Here on the West Coast I can also testify to tough times - hotels are off 30-40% and near term future bookings are weak as well.

Which leads to you - the consumer. IF you are traveling, this is a great time. Airfares are down, hotel rates, car rental rates, events and show tariffs are down - even restaurants are offering coupons and specials rarely seen in that industry. According to people I have talked to, they are practically giving away rooms in Las Vegas lately. Hotel deals are available anywhere now - all you have to do is ask.

As always, if you need any pointers or advice, I am available for quick consultations for free and will make recommendations that meet your needs.

Internet Marketing, Part 2

First the grim news: VERY few people make money right away. For those thinking they can throw out an e-book or two and rake in the dough within months - don't even bother to read further because you won't like what I have to say. But I speak the truth - as it has applied to me and how I see it applying to many others.

I hired a mentor for 2 basic reasons: 1) because I don't believe in re-inventing the wheel and knew that someone else who had been there and done that would keep me focused on what brings the best results. 2) I knew they would know the best products to use or avoid to put together your empire. Not all shopping carts are equal - I examined at least 15 before I realized the one that my mentor recommended was still the best for the dollars spent. Having someone to tell you how to do something is far easier than trying to go it alone. Yes, it costs money - big money to some people. But the amount I saved by not choosing the wrong products as well as shrinking the learning curve will allow me to start making money probably one year earlier than I would have otherwise. So eventually I will get that up front cost back sooner - and probably more exponentially to boot.

What you should look for in a mentor is obviously someone you get along with and while there are many on Twitter, FB and everywhere else on the net to choose from, a personal recommendation from someone is far more valuable than choosing one at random. My particular mentor, Connie Ragen Green, is no longer accepting mentees (she limits the number she will work with) but slots will open up from time to time as people drop out of the program for a variety of reasons. What is perhaps better however is that Connie offers individual classes and on-going training, which you will absolutely need when setting up sales pages, copy wrting, shopping carts, web sites, etc.

You can begin by simply listening to valuable information off her free weekly calls and perhaps graduating to a paid 6 week course. Eventually you may choose her very cost effective home course, which covers everything she teaches and has taught. Eventually you may choose to become a mentee if space allows.

How to Begin or Grow an Online Business

 Today I will deviate from the travel information I normally dispense and branch off to discuss something more relevant: your future. I write this because I have become convinced as I study the economy and world outlook today that jobs will continue to shrink in the years ahead and those who do not seek to find another source of income soon may be left behind in 5 years.

Years ago, I was laid off from Charles Schwab (twice) and the outplacement employment service they used gave us strange news: You should update your resume every 18 months, search for jobs every 2 years because you will switch jobs every 3 years (on average). Now of course they were addressing the corporate world and yet the sign of the times is upon us and those signs tell us that government jobs and seemingly secure jobs like engineering or finance are no longer safe havens, the high tech area has busted for the 2nd time in 8 years and even teachers and service workers are at risk in this economy.

Think about it - since 1987, the U.S. has endured a stock market crash and a severe market downturn, 3 recessions, 9/11, $4 gal. gas and a totally collapsing economy. Numerous severe events - "100 year" events have happened 5 times. Unemployment in California is approaching 10%, 401k's have been halved, home equity has dropped 50% in many places and the stock market is down 40%. Social security is slated to run out of money by 2016 to put the icing on the cake for those relying on the government to help you out.

It is no coincidence that many people have taken to starting an online business since 2001 but the fact that we didn't get in on this market till later is irrelevant. The money will still be there (even more as the Web grows around the world) and there is no reason why millions of people can't make money, either with active or passive income, for years to come. Think about it - if I made 100k per year, I would have about 3 times more money to buy YOUR THINGS. And people who already made millions are exactly the ones who buy OUR things right now.

So you need to position yourself for your future or I guarantee you will be trampled by the thousands applying for a simple entry level job in the years to come. Many people start online as a fling too. All you have to have is a passion for something that can help others. Even if it is just your expertise and experience, they have value to people who haven't 'been there-done that' yet. I started just that way - a passion to help others save money and enjoy travel more and in less than a year, MSNBC used one of my tips in their 2009 Travel Strategies piece and I was interviewed on live radio. How did I develop enough of a reputation in less than a year for this to happen?

I grinded. But more important - I hired a mentor to keep me out of the quicksand. Hiring a mentor for many fast tracks your success because you aren't wasting time chasing down rabbit holes and having to constantly start over.

Tomorrow I outline where I've been and where I am headed and how having a mentor has been responsible for any success I've had.

Airfares in a Tail Spin?

Not much surprise here. I've been predicting airline sales for months - though I will admit I didn't think so many airlines would slash prices all at once and for longer durations than normal. It was pretty obvious with the downturn in the economy toward the end of 2008 that fares would be cut. They almost always are after the holidays anyway. But usually the sales are trying to spur bookings in the following 2-3 months. This years sales by some airlines extend till next June and even September.

Do you think you missed out then? Most people will think so, since the airlines required you to book these flights by Jan 22nd. But I do not think that these are the ONLY sales you'll see nor do I think they are necessarily the lowest fares you will see either.

The Wall Street Journal blog reported recently that for the first time since Sept 07, the airlines saw a downturn in YIELD in December. Meaning the fare hikes they have pushed through in the last year and a half have come to a halt. The outlook for the foreseeable future remains the same - weakness in almost all sectors except the non-competitive routes (SF-LA, LA-NY, etc). This means lower fares and I suspect you will see round after round of fare sales into the summer. So you probably did not miss out on a great fare - just be patient (and flexible) and you should be able to get good rates well into 2009.

Hudson River Lessons

My IM mentor, Connie Green, mentioned to me recently the importance of proper dressing for flying. We all know people USED to wear suits and ties, dresses and high heels when flying. Nowadays however, we have appeared to have gone the other way - shorts and flip flops, T-shirts, Tevas, etc. But when was the last time you asked yourself before boarding; "What would I want to be wearing if the plane went down?" Connie mentioned that wearing nylons and polyester is not a good idea and she is right - they could tend to melt to your skin in the event of extreme heat. Best to wear cotton or wool clothing overall.

HIgh heels would not be a good idea when walking out on a wing. Shorts and exposed feet would not be great insulation against cold water. Even wearing a suit with vest would not be a great idea if you had to spend several hours in the water either. So you could start a trip by thinking about your dress. What is comfortable but effective wear in case the worst happens? As mentioned in the first post, knowing the safety instructions is paramount and if time allowed, you could even pull the card in the pocket in front of you and review it quickly. One safety tip I found said that in the event of a imminent water landing, do NOT inflate your life vest but do put it on if time allows. Inflating it may make you incapable of moving about the cabin toward an exit.

A final tip is to know how to brace for a hard landing. Grabbing your feet or ankles is supposed to be best. Make sure however to keep your head DOWN no matter what else. Because luggage storage bins may open and spew out heavy computers, bags, gifts, etc, you might be well served to bend at the waist and cover your head with your arms instead of grabbing your ankles and leaving your head exposed. As long as your head is low, you will be safe covering it. Finally, if you are able to move toward an exit, always hold on to something - a seat, storage bin, arm rest - as you move down the aisle. A settling plane can cause damage to you just as a crash might.

And as mentioned before, know WHERE the exits are, in casing the cabin is filled with smoke. Counting the seat tops to the exit row is a good way to know how far you may need to travel to get to the exit.

Hudson River Lessons

Since we have already been inundated with stories about the U.S. Air flight that 'belly' landed in the Hudson River, I won't bore you with senseless drivel. However, this is an opportune time to talk about aircraft safety and people's needs when flying.

My first suggestion is that unless you fly 3-4 times per month and WELL KNOW the 'ditch the plane' rules, LISTEN when the attendants go through their safety dog and pony show. I used to ignore them, having flown enough to think I would always know what to do but in the panic of realizing you are about to crash land, I wonder how much of what you THINK you know comes back to you? My guess is very little. So now I WANT to know which are the exit rows, where the flotation devices are and how to use them. It's just good common sense, no matter how infrequent a plane goes down.

I talk with FA's daily who remark about how people act on a plane. Despite the instructions, they try to get up to use the bathroom when taxiing for takeoff. Or press the attendant button as they zoom down the runway for takeoff or landing. Unbuckling the seat belt and standing up while taxiing to the gate. This may not be you, but these people MAY be on your next flight and I for one certainly would like to know who the (excuse my French) idiots are on the plane so I can avoid them. They are going to be the first to scream for help or get in the way because they don't seem to have an abundance of the common sense gene apparently.

Much of being prepared means to think ahead - even to when you reserve and choose your seat. Don't choose an exit row if you aren't prepared to be the last off and help others out first. Once aboard, I mentally count the rows to the nearest exit (like I do in a hotel corridor) in case the hallway or cabin was engulfed in smoke and you can't see a foot ahead of you. And remember: you can't help put an oxygen mask on someone else if you pass out first. So ALWAYS put your mask on first and then help another. More thoughts to follow.

We Interrupt This Programming.....

...To bring you a new fare sale from British Air. Because you need to book by Jan. 29th, I am inserting this post at the last minute. The good news is you have until March to travel, so anyone planning on going to London soon might want to check out this deal.

From MANY cities in the US to London for $550-$600 round trip, taxes and fees INCLUDED. (The fares you see in the article are sans taxes/fees). Not to mention up to 2 nights free at certain London hotels (assuming you stay there for other nights!)

Check out this British Air offer at:   http://www.britishairways.com/travel/offerus135/public/en_us

Travel Reviews in Context

After posting 2 articles regarding TripAdvisor's role in hotel reviews, I decided to print the initial post that started it all. This post addressed reviews in general and you specifically - the reader. My comments will follow at the end.

"This Oahu hotel had stellar TripAdvisor reviews. We were floored on arrival, and thought about leaving immediately and sleeping in the car. It was the 2005 Pro Bowl weekend and everything was booked solid, except for this hotel. We checked out after one night, which was one night too many.

It all comes down to who do you trust.

According to Jeremiah Owyang of Forrester Research, more than 83% of us trust the opinion of an acquaintance or friend, while only 30-49% of us trust the opinion of various website editors.

Another study, by Pollara Research, indicated that nearly 80% of those surveyed said they were likely to trust recommendations by real-world friends and family, but only 23% reported being likely to consider a well-known blogger’s recommendation.

For the most part, I found myself in agreement with these studies. It is sometimes difficult to know who you can trust and whether there was any monetary influence in a review. For me, it is more intuition than anything else. Also, does the writer seem to convey a true sense of objectivity about the property. If it is all glowing, that gets me wondering straight away.

Contrast individual reviews with travel review sites like TripAdvisor or Virtual Tourist, in which I needn’t feel trust towards any one author, because there are abundant reviews that I can myself digest and correlate.

A recent Travel and Leisure article spoke about travel review sites and also questioned their credibility. Some sites are making considerable progress in helping you find the truth in their reviews. We’ve previously expressed concerns too about travel review sites, and discussed ways to cut through the muck. TripAdvisor also suffers from an inherent corporate conflict of interest, inasmuch as it is now owned by Expedia.

Hotel Reviews on TripAdvisor Pt. 2

Here is the 2nd part to the recent Hotel Reviews post from Beat of Hawaii.

TripAdvisor is plagued with fake reviews.  Why?

As I wrote about yesterday, the problem of review fraud is two-fold:

• Intense competition in the travel industry, greatly exacerbated by the state of our economy, has caused hotels and other travel providers to artificially manipulate review rankings in order to achieve increased bookings and revenue.
• Inherent conflict of interest exists between travel marketing (via advertising) and a user review site like TripAdvisor.  Reducing the number of reviews and site visitors in order to curtail fake reviews will negatively impact marketing revenue.

Reviews absolutely influence where people stay.

The notion of writing good reviews about your business and bad reviews about your competitor is not the least bit far-fetched.  The reason is simply that the difference in bookings (revenue) between a property highly rated on TripAdvisor and one poorly rated is huge.  I cannot stress this enough.

PR firms and fake reviews.  I’ve long suspected that public relations companies have been involved in writing fraudulent reviews on behalf of their clients’ properties.

A comment to an article on the website PR Squared confirmed my suspicion.  Written by the VP of a major PR firm, it stated:  “Posting on TripAdvisor, for example, is the most basic of tactics in the PR 2.0 world.”

Hotels and restaurants incenting their employees to write reviews.

The positive review you’re reading may have been written by a paid employee.  How objective is that?

TripAdvisor’s point of view.

TripAdvisor reports becoming more vigilant and hi-tech in detecting fake reviews, and that their readers are savvy enough to ignore those that are bogus. On the other hand, if TripAdvisor really did something to control fake reviews, why would users need to be savvy about them?

Hotel Reviews on TripAdvisor Pt. 1

I found this article through Twitter and wanted to share it because it almost exactly matches what I wrote in my Hotel Reviews e-book. Especially regarding why it is necessary to look beneath the surface of a review. While I do not share completely the authors (Beat of Hawaii blog) premise that perhaps up to 30% of all reviews are fake, it is something to be considered. In part 2, I will add some of my thoughts as well.

"On reflection, TripAdvisor may at first appear to be a benevolent site where regular people share their honest travel opinions.  Dig beneath the surface, however, and you will find something quite the opposite is happening at TripAdvisor.  This is big business and the going is rough in today’s economic climate.

There are over twenty million reviews on TripAdvisor.  I believe that a fast-growing percentage of them (perhaps now as many as one-third) are fake.

What’s a fake review?  A review written by someone connected with a hotel (or other business) to boost its appeal, or a negative review written by a competitor (or a disgruntled party) to lower a hotels’ standing.

To prove this point, The London Times wrote and submitted six glowing reviews, all fake, on hotels considered among the worst in London.  TripAdvisor posted all six reviews without ever commenting on the discrepancy.

It just goes to show you have to be careful who you trust and not take anything at face value. The fast-growth of fraudulent reviews makes it imperative that we come to a site like TripAdvisor with a fairly high level of skepticism in order to come away with the honest information we desire.

Trust and TripAdvisor may no longer go together.  Here’s why:

1. Surveys have shown that the vast majority of us have come to trust user reviews.  Lack of review credibility, however, has started to seriously erode trust at TripAdvisor and at other review sites.
2. TripAdvisor, a unit of Expedia, obviously serves first and foremost to further their global travel marketing business.  TripAdvisor makes money through their affiliate (link click) program and through advertisements.  The value of that marketing business is in no small part based on the number of reviews as well as the number of visitors to the site.  Reducing the number of visitors and reviews in order to limit the amount of fraud will likely also have significant negative financial impact on their marketing.
3. The travel industry is in most serious financial trouble.  Competition in order to stay in business is cut-throat.  The need to achieve top ranking in user-generated reviews such as on TripAdvisor is intense."  Part Two to follow.