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Hotel Sale from Ramada

It is not often that I post information about hotel sales. The obvious reason being most 'sales' I hear of are either too 'time restrictive' (book within 3 days) or they aren't truly sales. But it appears that this hotel recession we are in has finally produced some good sales.

The one I write about here is for all Ramada's. They are offering up to 50% off on certain stays. According to this article from Gadling, some Ramada's are offering rooms as low as $28 per night. Read the article for disclaimers and restrictions to see if there is any chance you could use a good 50% off for a future stay allowed by Ramada according to their parameters.

Also, however, keep in mind the following. Getting a 50% discount may be fine - staying in a dump where no price you might pay would be satisfactory is not fine. My experience tells me that often it is the $40 per night hotels and motels offering these discounts and sometimes the discounts are not much less than they would offer you the room for anyway. Keep in mind that as far as the food chain goes with hotels, Ramada is not exactly near the top. Along with Days Inn, Howard Johnson's and Travelodge's, these brands are in the lower tier of hotels/motels and are already considered budget hotels.

My advice would be to see what kind of discount they would allow (under the 50% off promotion) not only to see if you qualify but if it is available and then go to Expedia or their corporate website to see what the regular rate is. Or simply call the hotel some night and ask what the best rate is that they will give you. If they are offering rooms for $69 and you can get it for $41, that is a good deal. If you call them and they say they can give you a rate of $48 anyway, it is NOT such a great deal.

Keep in mind as well that most likely these reservations are non cancelable and non changeable, so if weather strands you somewhere, you will not be able to cancel or switch check in dates. So check to see what the cancel policy is for this promotion. And as always, remember that $28 per night motels are very likely to be a sad sack motel. Perhaps in bad areas or with tremendously bad reviews. (It pays to read reviews for such hotels on Tripadvisor, Travelocity, Expedia.) So "let the buyer beware" whenever you see a sale almost too good to be true. Make sure it is the recession forcing rates down and not a normally $38 per night hotel offering $10 off (unless you LIKE $38 motels!)

What Travel 'Experts' Expect in 2010

I have prepared a 2010 newsletter on what I expect to happen in the coming year but I may not end up offering it when all is said and done. In its place, I offer this USA Today article citing certain travel experts as to what they think will happen in 2010. And just to be fair, I also found travel columnist and travel author Ed Perkins views for the 2010 outlook and offer them here courtesy of the Baltimore Sun.

Most of my readers know I am not impressed (to say the least) with Third Party travel sites so when the article starts off citing a Travelocity 'expert', I cringed to think what I would read. All in all, none of the advice (or opinion) offered is bad and after all, it really is only opinion. Mine is no more valuable than any others and I would add my acknowledgment that the advice offered is good enough. No one expects 2010 to be much better than 2009 - my problem is I think a rebound will happen sooner than most experts think, so I think expecting 'more of the same' in 2010 may not apply by summer time.

But I'll cross that bridge when we come to it. For now, read these three expert opinions and make your decisions yourself.

What the Christmas Terror Attempt Means for Fliers

Because of the attempted bombing in Detroit of an airliner, the travel scene for 2010 changed once again. And once again, the airlines are the hardest hit on the economic front, as it is feared many people will shy away from travel (or at least from flying) because the security breaches reminded us once again just how vulnerable we really are.

I'm no airline expert or apologist but I'll pass along this story I found concerning what exactly may be the reaction of many fliers to this latest threat. As always, it centers less on safety as it does on comfort (people won't fly if they have to wait in 3 hour lines to go from Boise to Las Vegas) but they will allow for extra security for that overseas or Hawaii bound trip.

Nonetheless, with 2010 hoping to rebound from the bleak 2009 economic disaster in the travel arena, this is the LAST thing the airlines (and hotels and Car rental agencies and tour providors) needed.

Why PrePaid Hotel Reservations Are To Be Avoided

I have written several times regarding the risk versus the benefit of pre-paying hotel reservations. Most recently it was a post last March regarding the additional small discount you receive when you pre-pay but as a general rule, it does not make good financial sense to pay $100's if not 1,000's of dollars up front for an agency or hotel to use for months ahead of your arrival.

Here is yet another reason to think twice about pre payment for hotels. This sad story was printed by USA Today out of Hawaii about a Canadian couple who lost their pre-paid vacation because the hotel went under. As opposed to Third Party travel sites (which would re-book you somewhere else), there is no recourse when your chosen hotel goes bankrupt. With the elevated number of loan defaults and bank foreclosures lately, there is a greater chance of this happening than any time since the Great Depression.

IN my opinion, if you are pre-paying one night only, it might be OK to risk losing your money. But for this couple having paid for a MONTH? And now losing it all?

Not worth the risk in my opinion. But if you DO decide to take such a rosk, I always suggest you consider travel insurance and make sure your policy covers bankrupt hotels, etc.

What to Expect in 2010 Update

Two months ago, I posted an opinion that suggested any recovery in the economy would not take place until summer of 2011 and you might see weakness in the travel arena because of that. Yet you could expect higher air fares anyway because of airline capacity cutbacks. Hotel rates are in flux because hoteliers are caught between what once was (high rates in 2008) and what is (slashed rates due to plummeting occupancy) in 2009.

I am preparing another 2010 Travel Outlook newsletter to come out sometime this month or in January 2010 and I have a surprise for everyone. Statistics that have come out since October have shown that in certain areas, travel is not down all that much. Yet we keep seeing sales, sales, sales as far as airline fares are concerned and it looks all the world like another great year for travelers.

I have been leaning a different way lately, which I will outline in depth in the free report but suffice to say that in early November, the venerable Wall St Journal posted an article titled "Last Hurrah for Travel Deals?" and I already had been leaning that way before it came out.

I will automatically offer my newsletter free to anyone who is already on my list or you can keep your eye out for an announcement here when it is ready to print and obtain it free as well.

Christmas Travel - What to (Maybe) Expect

I think everyone learned a lesson or two from Thanksgiving travel this year. While almost every 'expert' on TV or on blogs or writing in the papers expected less travel overall this year (due to recession), that wasn't what turned out to be remarkable. They still predicted long lines on Wed. the 23rd. So yes, airports all over the country reported FEW LINES and relatively no delays.

Granted, the weather was pretty benign across the US so there were no horrendous 'stuck on the tarmac' stories this year, meaning back ups in the whole system. Everything flowed pretty smoothly and here is why - no one was flying the day before Thanksgiving! We already know few travel on the holiday itself but the Wed. before Turkey Day is almost always the busiest day of the year at the airport. Not this year and probably not next year either. The reason?

People not working (record numbers as if you didn't know) did not have to work for 2-3 days of Thanksgiving week and rush out on Tues or Wed. Add to them the number of forced vacations placed upon people (I golfed with 2 of them on the Tuesday - forced furloughs by their companies they said) and lo and behold, more people spread out their travel over the whole week than ever before. One pundit on the news reported that here in the S.F. Bay Area, it was mobbed on the FRIDAY before Thanksgiving and live shots on Wed evening showed almost NO LINES at all. People reported checking in HOURS ahead of schedule and were sitting on their hands for HOURS. That meant fewer bumped passengers and happier campers all around.

I suspect this will happen both at Christmas and next year as well. With Christmas on a Friday, I suspect many people (especially executives) will simply take the whole week off, if not fly on the Monday or Tuesday. My guess would be that Friday the 18th and Saturday the 19th will have busier airports than Thursday the 24th. Next year, expect a repeat, since the economy will probably not be materially better and Christmas will fall on Saturday.

This is great news for people excited about visiting relatives for the holidays. Not such great news for those that don't get along with the in-laws so well.

Once Again, Why Hotels Don't SLASH Rates in a Recession

It is quite the common theme these days to pick up a paper or read an Internet Travel column and the article writer boldly predicts lots of sales everywhere and anywhere you want to go. Forget the fact that over the last year airlines have slashed capacity so much and laid off so many workers that fares are more likely to firm up than drop any more. They brazenly say that hotel rooms are going vacant in this recession/depression and that hotel operators would do anything to fill rooms, even by discounting them severely.

While this may well be true for some, it is a limited some in my opinion. Hotels would actually rather chance vacant rooms than to lose the hard earned gains they made since 2001 nearly destroyed the travel industry. Why?

Glad you asked. It's called playing the rate game and it goes like this.

New Fees for Holiday Travel

If you think this is a regurgitated post from this time last year, you would be wrong. Another year, another new set of annoying 'fees' that the airlines make you pay for the simplest things: like reserving a seat, not pre-paying baggage fees (I'm not sure I understand that one - you pay $25 to check a bag and another $5 fee for not pre-paying the baggage fee online?) among other new fees. It was inevitable of course - last year when fuel surcharges were all the rage, airlines found that they could maintain low priced tickets and then sock you with user fees that helped raise the ticket price to what they really wanted all along.

Not that I don't have sympathy for them. The reason they don't just raise ticket fees is because not all airlines would do it and then some would 'appear' to have better prices because they quote the base fares and then add on the surcharges. And the reason some airlines do THAT is because these are user fees - if you aren't checking bags, you won't be charged luggage surcharges much less the pre-payment penalty.

I have hesitated to even write about these fees, since they seem so common now but perhaps the occasional holiday traveler will be taken aback at all the minor surcharges. For them I pass along the N. Y. Times article detailing the state of fees for this holiday period and into next year to boot. The article is titled "Even as Fares Creep Up, AIrlines Tack on Fees Too" and may be a primer for some novice travelers. The rest of the well learned traveling public will no doubt shrug and pay - after all, did you want to WALK to Cincinnati from San Diego with your luggage trailing behind you? What choices do you really have?

And that's what the airlines know and we are learning!

More Airfare News

As a companion post to my last one regarding the outlook for hotel and airline fares in 2010, I use this post as support for some of my premises stated int the last post.

Southwest Air, the bell weather airline for discount fares, recently announced their next GREAT sale. But if you look over the last few quarters of airfare sales, you would notice the 'sales' are not nearly as high as they used to be. A great article from USA Today shows you why.

Even though I suggested fares WOULD rise more than the 5% American Express Business travel expects for next year and that seems to be exactly what Southwest is indicating, it is far to early to call this a trend or even call it "solid gold". Remember, airlines and hotels (as a general rule) put forth future rates that they HOPE to get. If and when the demand does not meet their expectation, prices are slashed. Southwest may be posting these fares HOPING to get these fares but they have proven to be the quickest with a sale and can change their rates on a dime. Which is what I expect will happen.

As a barometer, let's keep an eye on those cross country fares that USA Today noted. I fully expect to see fares back in the under $100 range before this fare 'sale' runs it course. As always, it is a waiting game and this game is played by both sides. Airlines wait to see how bookings are and people react and travelers wait to see how much the airlines are willing to lower fares. If you haven't the stomach to wait it out, feel free to book now but those who have played this game through the years will likely come out the winners once again when SUPER airfare sales result!

What to Expect in 2010

It is always precarious to venture into the world of 'predicting' and posting an article on what to expect in the travel sector in the coming year is no different - it's scary. Many things that affect your prediction could occur (wars breaking out, terrorism attacks, economic upheaval) but anyone reading your "best guesses" only remember what you SAID would happen., They forget words like "might", "maybe" and "most likely" and tend to remember only what you said would happen.

But as one who has never been afraid to insert foot into mouth, I boldly venture forth into the unknown once again.

Recent articles have surfaced that suggest the travel world could see some changes in the next year that will adversely affect consumers. In a nutshell, most experts expect airline and hotel rates to continue to weaken through the end of the year and somewhat into 2010 but by the end of 2010, both should turn upwards. In the case of hotel rates, perhaps only slightly but airfares are primed to rocket upward somewhat significantly. The reason for this is that airlines have cut back so much AND CONTINUE to do so and those capacity cuts will cause higher rates when demand rebounds, as it is expected to next year. One article in particular from American Express suggests airfares will rise only slightly, but this is not what many of the other experts have been saying. They expect significantly higher fares.

What do I think? I think airfares will rise more than the 5% AMEX suggests but unless the economy starts to show signs of recovery, demand may not surface so much that 20% rises result. If we indeed have a jobless recovery, a lot of people will simply not have the money to travel and even those with jobs will still feel insecure until they see people going back to work. An MSNBC article from Oct. 2 shows exactly how this is happening also.Throw in the confusion resulting from the pending Health Plan initiatives and I sense people will be reluctant to spend money on trips until the dust settles.

Which probably won't be until summer of 2011 - in my humble opinion.